Comment by Jim Campbell
January, 18, 2020
Education can be a double edged sword.
As many Black Americans are graduating form universities across the country as well as receiving advanced degrees they begin to think of themselves differently.
Asking a simple question, what have Democrats done for American blacks in the last 50 years, the answer is nothing.
What if Blacks Vote for Trump?
The Wall Street Journal
By Daniel Henninger
Jan. 18, 2020
Wonder Land: The traditional view of African-American voters supporting the Democratic Party could be upended by three recent polls, which show growing support for President Trump among black voters. Image: Curtis Compton/Zuma Press
What if in November enough black Americans voted for Donald Trump to re-elect him into the presidency?
This unlikely straw has been in the political winds recently because in three opinion polls—Emerson, Marist, and Rasmussen—President Trump registered about 30% support among black voters.
Asked to respond by InsideSources.com, former Hillary Clinton adviser Joel Payne said: “I have a better chance of jumping center for the Celtics tonight than Donald Trump having 30% support in the African-American community.”
He may get the call.
[No bias there, just more delusional thinking]
The reason this unlikely 30% number breaks the seals in Democratic heads is that for years it has been a rule of thumb in politics that if black support for Republicans ever reached 20% of the total vote, a Democratic presidential candidate would not be able to win, ever.
A Gallup analysis of the Roper Center’s exit poll data has Republican candidates averaging about 10% of the black vote since 1976. In 2016, Mr. Trump topped out at 8%. Still, one wonders if Mr. Trump’s potential pull from black and Hispanic voters may be the sleeper issue of the 2020 campaign, the way conventional wisdom missed the 2016 Trump vote in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
During the latter election cycle, one of the most important, least noticed events was a July 2015 speech by former Texas Gov. Rick Perry in which he said it was time for black Americans to reconsider their political loyalties:
“Democrats have long had the opportunity to govern African-American communities,” he said. “It is time for black families to hold them accountable for the results.
And I’m here to tell you it is Republicans, not Democrats, who are truly offering black Americans the hope for a better life for themselves and their children.”
Last Friday, stories on the December jobs numbers noted that the unemployment rate of 3.5% was at a 50-year low, with the unemployment rate for African-Americans and Hispanics hitting historic lows, both under 6%.
In a 2015 speech on the economy, Hillary Clinton talked about the jobs landscape then: “A quarter of young black men and nearly 15% of all Latino youth cannot find a job.”
Those numbers are much better for them now. They know it, and their voting parents and grandparents know it.
One anecdote: I was walking through a neighborhood food court in Manhattan last month and noticed a new counter that sells smoked fish.
Behind it, learning the operation, were five employees—all in their 20s and all black or Hispanic.
A thought occurred to me: That’s the Trump economy. That is the reality behind the monthly jobs numbers.
An entrepreneur got a loan to open this small business and gave these five what looked like their first jobs.
Also reported in the past two years is how workers in their first or second jobs are moving up the pay scale into higher-level jobs.
In the Democratic presidential debate Tuesday night, there was virtually no recognition that any of this was happening.
But maybe some of these minority voters—maybe even the additional numbers Mr. Trump needs to earn 15% to 20% of the black vote—don’t think work grows on trees or out of federal transfer payments and do believe this president’s policies have contributed to their paychecks and improved prospects.
Conventional wisdom holds that Mr. Biden has a lock on the black vote. The Washington Post-Ipsos poll reported days ago that 48% of black voters prefer Mr. Biden over his Democratic rivals.
The more intriguing corollary question is why have other Democratic candidates, including Kamala Harris and Cory Booker, failed to attract significant black support? [Because black voters saw them as frauds?]
Mr. Trump’s 30% support may be a figment, but theirs is pretty much invisible.
Some of that sentiment for Mr. Biden’s could be a default, rather than the guarantee it was with Barack Obama.
An enduring condescension of our politics is that the voting preferences of minorities, especially black Americans, are monolithic and unchanging. This is notably untrue of Hispanics, whose vote this time is up for grabs, and who are a substantial percentage of voters in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Texas, and Florida.
As well, one of the great, well-documented social dynamics of our time is the migration of black Americans out of the politically blue urban centers in the north—New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, even Los Angeles—for greater economic opportunity across the Southern U.S. Days ago, the Journal reported on the array of benefits manufacturers are offering to get needed workers to relocate to take a half-million unfilled factory jobs.
Social mobility, the most durable antipoverty program, is stirring again. Rick Perry’s question about results and party is suddenly apt.
The tectonic plates of American society are moving again, and not in ways that comport with the progressive storyline of intractable inequality and racism.